A Brave New World?: Looking at the Future of Tech Policy

 

Dr. Shashi Tharoor's session at the Singapore FinTech Festival explored the global tech policy landscape, the impact of the recent US election, and the implications of Donald Trump's potential return to office.

 

Key Themes and Takeaways:

1. Impact of Trump's Return on Global Affairs

  • Trump 2.0 Concerns: Dr. Tharoor noted that Trump's presidency could bring a mix of expected and unpredictable actions. From an Asian perspective, there are apprehensions around renewed tariffs and trade wars, especially concerning India and China. Immigration policies could also impact countries that send skilled labor to the US.
  • Trade and Tech Wars: A potential resurgence of the trade war with China is likely, along with a tech conflict. Trump's administration has previously had a confrontational stance on China, and this approach is expected to continue, though details depend on the new foreign policy team.
  • Tech Deregulation: Trump’s administration has indicated plans to roll back Biden’s AI regulations, potentially allowing unregulated development in the US. The impact on ethical AI and regulatory frameworks remains uncertain, creating a free-market approach that may not align with global tech governance.

2. US Tech Policy and Its Global Impact

  • Cryptocurrency Stance: Trump has shown support for crypto de-regulation, a move that could significantly boost the crypto market but may conflict with the cautious approach of other countries, such as Singapore and India, which are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for more controlled financial ecosystems.
  • Potential U-Turn on TikTok: Interestingly, Trump hinted at reversing the ban on TikTok, arguing it benefits competitors like Facebook, which he has criticised. This move raises questions about data security and geopolitical strategy, especially given previous concerns over Chinese tech influence.

3. AI and Geopolitical Dynamics

  • US and AI Dominance: Dr. Tharoor discussed America's strategic lead in AI, bolstered by its access to cutting-edge chips like those from Nvidia. The US aims to maintain a technological edge, but China is pursuing AI development through alternative means, focusing on energy advantages and architectural efficiencies.
  • India's Role in AI: Despite being late to the AI game, India has the potential to rapidly catch up, particularly given its burgeoning talent pool. However, Dr. Tharoor highlighted challenges such as limited infrastructure and access to key technologies like advanced AI chips, which are heavily influenced by US-China relations.

4. Tech-Driven Economic Disruption

  • Job Displacement Concerns: The AI revolution poses risks of widespread unemployment, particularly in countries like India and China with large labor forces. Dr. Tharoor referenced past disruptions, such as the decline of medical transcription jobs in India due to AI advancements. The challenge is whether new AI-related jobs can be created in sufficient quantity to offset these losses.
  • Technological Adaptation: Drawing from historical examples, Dr. Tharoor acknowledged that society has often adapted to technological shifts, with new industries emerging, like the rise of Facebook and Google from the internet revolution. However, the scale and speed of AI changes may present unprecedented challenges.

5. Ethical and Regulatory Questions

  • AI Ethics and Liability: Ethical concerns about AI, such as liability for accidents involving autonomous vehicles and the potential use of AI in military applications, are pressing. Dr. Tharoor emphasised the need for regulations to ensure AI benefits humanity without compromising safety or security.
  • Data Security: The conversation also touched on data protection, especially with Chinese tech companies like TikTok. Countries are grappling with balancing data localisation and the need for data portability to stay competitive, creating complex policy debates.

6. Global Tech Wars and Potential Outcomes

  • Competition vs. Collaboration: Dr. Tharoor highlighted that tech wars could be beneficial if they drive innovation and better products for humanity. However, the risk of fragmentation and incompatible standards remains. He likened the situation to past format wars in technology, where multiple standards co-existed, often creating inefficiencies.
  • Interoperability or Decoupling?: The future may see some countries building independent tech ecosystems while others aim for interoperability. The outcome will likely depend on political and economic priorities, with potential winners being those that can balance innovation with regulatory compliance.

 

Closing Thoughts and Predictions:

  • Dizzying Pace of Change: Dr. Tharoor quoted Ray Kurzweil, suggesting that the 21st century's technological advancements could feel like 20,000 years of change compressed into 100.
  • Regulatory Balance: He advocated for regulatory policies that encouraged growth while curbing unethical practices and monopolies. The approach will vary globally, with each country needing to find a balance that works for its unique context.

Final Note: The discussion wrapped up on a forward-looking yet cautious note, emphasising the need to monitor and adapt to the fast-evolving tech landscape while ensuring it benefits society as a whole

 

Watch Full Session

 

Speaker:

  • Dr. Shashi Tharoor, Member of Parliament & Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, Republic of India

Moderator:

  • Tanvir Gill, Anchor, CNBC International
 
 

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