UAE Consensus. COP 28 - The Transition

Written by Dr Darian McBain, Sustainability Advisor, Elevandi, and Chief Executive Officer, Outsourced Chief Sustainability Officer Asia

Wait a minute, let me take a selfie. 

If you had no context for climate change negotiations and had landed on Earth from another planet in late November, you could be forgiven for thinking that the way humans plan to solve climate change is by travelling long distances to gather in a city in the desert and take photos of each other. If a picture says 1,000 words, 1,000 selfies don’t produce a solution to climate change.

However, 198 countries agreeing unanimously to transition away from fossil fuels is something worth talking about. This significant agreement is being called the UAE Consensus, the outcome of the first Global Stocktake reached at COP28 in Dubai.

As COP 28 drew to a close, it seems there was more going on under the surface, and behind the scenes than panels, fireside chats, keynote speeches and product launches. The hardworking negotiators worked their magic and leadership was shown by the President of the Summit, Sultan al-Jaber who, as the head of the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was initially dismissed as a spokesperson for Big Oil. These concerns were amplified when in an interview early on during the COP meetings he questioned the science supporting the phasing out of fossil fuels. However, he has shown the negotiating ability of the Arabic state, bringing the fossil fuel states and companies together to the Climate Summit with the rest of the world like perhaps no other could.

The UAE certainly understands in a very visceral way the impacts of climate change – they already have extreme heat, a lack of access to water and lack of ability to grow sufficient food for their population. With this in mind, as well as the fact that their wealth has to date been derived from fossil fuels, UAE hosted the biggest Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP) yet. In a year when 2023 is on track to be the hottest in recorded history, and could be the hottest in more than 100,000 years. Keeping the rise in global temperatures under 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels of warming, the stated aim of the Paris Declaration made at COP 21 in Paris, is an increasingly urgent imperative. So what did this COP deliver?

What went really well….

2030 continues to be a big year in our common futures. For those of us old enough to remember Y2K (the nerve-wracking New Year’s Eve before the clocks ticked over to the Year 2000), 2030 is shaping up to be similarly impactful. Start planning where you want to be now, because it isn’t that far away. By 2030, the UAE Consensus commits to setting us on the pathway to tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling annual rate of energy efficiency improvements. Marrying that with a commitment to accelerating zero and low emission technologies, as well as phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and we may see a genuine move away from a fossil fuelled economy.

One of the first, and potentially most impactful agreements to come out of this COP was the doubling down by the US, China and other states on the Global Methane Pledge. Methane is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas, although it stays in the atmosphere for a shorter period of time. Agriculture has a massive role to play in human made methane emissions as does waste. From the natural world, wetlands contribute around 30% of global emissions. However, the energy systems have a significant role to play as methane is also a key component of natural gas (a potential ‘transitional fuel’ as mentioned in the Consensus). Reducing global methane emissions in the short term can literally provide the world with some breathing space while we work on methods to reduce or remove CO2 emissions. Therefore the commitment to reduce human’s methane emissions by 30% by 2030 through the Global Methane Pledge, signed by 155 countries, is a breath of fresh air.

The inclusion of the role of nature is an important one, to ensure that we continue to consider the continuum that exists between climate change, nature and people. The UAE Consensus makes specific reference to ‘conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems’. This will be achieved by halting and reversing deforestation and degradation, conserving biodiversity and terrestrial and marine ecosystems (hooray for the oceans being included) in line with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. This is an upgrade from the agreement at COP26 in Glasgow on deforestation, which was not part of the UN agreement and supported by 130 countries instead of the full 198 countries who have agreed to the UAE Consensus.

A special shout out goes to reference of Indigenous People’s knowledge and local knowledge systems as well as science, for guiding decisions on implementation.

And finally, an agreement to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just and equitable manner, in keeping with the science, is probably one of the biggest deals out of this COP. As Sultan al-Jabar said in his closing statement, we have language on fossil fuels in the final agreement for the first time ever. There is also a commitment to accelerating efforts to phase down unabated coal power in energy systems.

President of the Summit, Sultan al-Jaber

There are an awful lot of devils in the details that will need to be worked out to implement this agreement and have the impact that we need. We don’t yet know how the rubber will hit the road because there are potentially many loopholes and caveats, and the UAE Consensus does not have a mechanism for enforcement. We don’t have much time, and not only mitigation but adaptation needs to start now. But at least we have an agreed path forward signed by 198 countries and recognition that we need to transition away from fossil fuel use.

What still needs a bit of work…

No agreement is ever going to keep everyone happy, there are vested interests and differences of opinion wherever we look. Just think of your own family dynamics and reaching an agreement on which movie to watch, and then amplify it to the max. The further negotiations on the Loss and Damage Fund, an agreement to help fund activities to support those most impacted by climate change, were welcome and establish a global Board and the World Bank as the initial managers of the Fund. However, the close to $700 million that has been committed to the Fund leaves us with a significant shortfall. To put it into context, the baseball player Shohei Ohtani’s new 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers is reportedly worth $700 million. Either we need him at the COP negotiating table, or it highlights how much further we really need to go if we are serious about Loss and Damage.

The family picture of COP 28 seriously lacked female representation. Of the 140 world leaders invited to speak, only 15 were women. Analysis of the delegations attending this COP is slightly more positive, with a ratio of 62% male to 38% female. Women and children are bearing the brunt of climate change, and we need diversity of people at the negotiating table.

Not everything reached a conclusion, which is often true of such an intense negotiation process. Notably, the discussions around Article 6 relating to the carbon markets failed to reach an agreement. In a year where several global exposés have called into question the validity and transparency of the voluntary carbon markets, many see this as another blow. Finance, front and centre of COP26, was also put on the backburner with an agreement to look at a post 2025 finance target ahead of the next COP, which will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The biggest point of contention is that we still remain without the language and commitment to stop burning fossil fuels, and that with the impacts of climate change being felt now, the ambitions of this agreement and our collective pace of change is too slow.

Time to get involved

The Singapore Fintech Festival in 2023 had 66,000 people in attendance. That was big. COP 28 had over 100,000 people over two weeks. We can be cynical and say the talk fest doesn’t matter, but it does. Culturally, the COP meetings have become a part of our annual timeline. Someone even wished me recently a Happy COP season and a Prosperous New Year. If we don’t put language to our global challenges like climate change and start to align our culture with a net zero future, we cannot share a common understanding of the solutions that we all need to contribute to at a number of levels. Meeting in person builds trust in a way that meeting virtually can not. And at this time, we need to build trust because climate change needs collective action – just ask the Small Island Developing States, who generally contribute very little to global emissions, and yet will be impacted so dramatically. So whilst large gatherings have an impact of their own, they also bring with them the benefit of sharing knowledge, ideas and building trust.

Elevandi will continue to host dialogues throughout 2024 and bring people together to share knowledge, ideas and build trust across finance, technology and policy. The global climate tech sector is estimated to grow to US$2.2 trillion by 2027. We cannot ignore this important agenda. There is a lot of innovation and engagement needed before then to ensure that finance can genuinely play its role to support a just and equitable transition to net zero. From Singapore FinTech Festival to Rwanda’s Inclusive FinTech Forum to Zurich’s Point Zero Forum, may the dialogues continue and inspire people to make meaningful change that impacts the world for the better. Don’t be a bystander, join the conversation and take action.